Reading the recession-probability signal in 2026
How the smoothed probability model behaves around turning points, and what the current reading does — and doesn't — tell us.
Read moreSerie macro, mercati e posizionamento da fonti pubbliche: ogni numero tracciabile alla sua origine.
Markets move in cycles. This dashboard rebuilds the most-watched macro indicators from their original public sources, so you can read trends and risk from data you can verify and cite — not a black box.
A working example, wired to a live public feed. Hover, zoom, and explore — every value traces back to FRED / NBER.
Indicators rebuilt from primary public sources and refreshed automatically, so your view of the cycle stays current.
Compare series, change time ranges, and read each chart against recession periods to form your own independent view.
Built for analysts who want to reason from data they can audit, share, and reuse for their own research.
Every chart cites the exact dataset behind it. No paywalled black boxes — just open data, presented clearly.
How the smoothed probability model behaves around turning points, and what the current reading does — and doesn't — tell us.
Read moreOverlaying NBER recession periods against equity returns to separate signal from narrative.
Read moreA from-the-source look at the labor indicators that tend to lead the cycle, rebuilt from public releases.
Read moreFinally a dashboard where I can click through to the exact dataset behind every line. That's all I want from a research tool.
Rebuilding these indicators from public sources taught me more about the cycle than any paid feed ever did.
Clean, fast, and fully sourced. It does one thing well: help me reason from data I can verify.
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